One month out: The U.S. presidential election is too close to call

The American election looks extremely close

The headline right now, October 7, 2024, is: this race is extremely close .

The U.S. is the only presidential democracy where the winner of the most votes is not necessarily the winner of the election. What matters is the vote in individual states , so in a close race, things can get really complicated . Even this close to the finish line, it’s not clear who is going to win. At this point , the information about the state races suggests that this is going to be very, very close.

Polls and forecasts give Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump each about a 50 percent chance of winning; some do give Harris a slight edge, but her advantage, if she truly has one, is very narrow.

So with just under a month left, let’s check in on the candidates.

For better or for worse , people know Donald Trump and they’ve made up their minds . His support is relatively stable : it’s not going to swing much higher or dip much lower . At this point, he can’t do anything—good or bad—to change many people’s minds about him. The question for Trump is: how many people on the fence will decide to break for him ?

At the candidates’ debate in September, Trump lost his temper and shouted absurdities . He said immigrants are eating the pet dogs and cats in a town in Ohio. This would have been devastating for any candidate other than Trump. But the craziness is baked into his support : people who support Trump have heard all of this and worse before. This is Trump and people know what they’re getting.

Trump has a very strong bond with his true supporters . There are also people who don’t necessarily like him, but who have good memories of the time he was president. They might not like his style, but they did like the economy when he was in office. They also remember there was less foreign conflict in the world during that time. Some of these people may wait until the last minute to decide who they’ll vote for, or if they’ll vote at all.

The job for Trump now is this: don’t repel any large swathes of voters with offensive statements in the last weeks of the race. He should motivate and inspire the people who are already in his camp . A lot of people intend to hold their nose and vote for him; he shouldn’t give them any reason to change their minds now. When he won in 2016, his advisors convinced him not to personally tweet in the whole month of October. That was good advice.

Harris, on the other hand , has more work to do, but also she has greater upside. People are still forming their opinions of her—and likely will continue to do so up until Election Day. Yes, she is the sitting vice president . But she didn’t have a high profile until she dramatically became the Democrats’ candidate in late July.

Harris had an excellent start to her campaign : she immediately improved on Joe Biden’s polling numbers , she gave some good high-profile speeches , raised a lot of money for her campaign, and convincingly won the single debate between the two candidates. Above all , she has seemed presidential and unafraid of taking Trump on directly. Biden was all but certain to lose the election; Harris has made this a close competition.

Lots of voters were craving an alternative to Biden and Trump—and now they have one. Simply not being Joe Biden has helped Kamala Harris, but that’s not enough to win the race. A lot of people won’t vote for Trump, including many Republicans. A lot of them have never voted for a Democrat before and are only now starting to consider it . Those voters can either stay home or vote for Harris. Harris needs to convince them to pull the lever for her. In a race this close, every vote matters.

Harris enjoyed a burst of momentum after she received the nomination, but that momentum has stalled. She’s starting to hit the ceiling of support that any candidate can receive in a 50-50 country.

So what can they do to break through? Both candidates need to get their supporters to the polls. It’s not enough to have people like you: the supporters have to vote. Many states allow early voting or mail-in voting ; in some states, voters have already cast their ballots . The candidates need to mobilize their armies of volunteers to get their supporters to the polls on or before Election Day.

October is about closing arguments . There aren’t many undecided voters left in any presidential election, but there are some. And this is the time those few undecided voters make their final choice. This is the time for the candidates to focus on repeating their winning messages over and over in person, on television, in advertisements , online, via surrogates , everywhere they possibly can.

Trump’s two strongest arguments are criticisms : illegal immigration and inflation have both gotten worse during the Biden-Harris administration. He’ll likely pound Harris relentlessly on these two big issues. He should remind voters about the health of the economy when he was president.

Harris has settled on some strong closing arguments herself: she’ll work toward creating an “opportunity economy” where everyone can get ahead, and we should “turn the page” on the toxic politics of the past. She should reiterate her support of abortion rights , an issue where she’s much closer to the mainstream opinion than Trump is.

In her brief time as nominee, Harris has seemed presidential. She has run a cautious campaign; she hasn’t released many detailed policy plans. Instead, she’s focused on her biography and her preparedness to assume office. In her final month, she should continue to act presidential and show strong leadership.

One other thing to be aware of: There is an ugly tradition in American politics called the “October surprise.” If either candidate has something devastating on the other, they may wait until the closing weeks of the election to release it . There isn’t always one—but if there’s something really bad, it might come out in October. If you want an example of an October surprise, Google the term “Trump Access Hollywood” or “Clinton WikiLeaks” and you’ll see exactly what I mean.

Jeff’s take

November 5 is Election Day. I’m going to prepare you now: if this turns out to be as close as it now seems, then it might be a few days or longer before a winner can be determined . In the year 2000, one final state tipped the balance of the election; that wasn’t officially certified until December 12, more than a month after the election. A total of 537 votes separated the winner from the loser. This year might be just as dramatic. Hold onto your hats .