Deal or no deal? The stakes are high as Britain prepares—or fails to prepare —to leave the EU
The deadline is March 29, 2019. That is the day Britain will leave the European Union, but after two years of preparation , neither side knows exactly what that will look like.
And I thought I was the king of procrastination ! Hi everyone, welcome to Plain English for Monday, August 27, 2018. I’m Jeff and the producer of the program is JR. Plain English is a great podcast for learning English because, as you can hear, we go at a slightly slower speed just so you can understand all the words. And if you have trouble when you’re just listening, try reading along with our interactive transcripts. Today is episode 80, so you can find the transcript at PlainEnglish.com/80. When you get there, check out our interactive transcripts, which show you the definitions of key English words in your language. We currently support Chinese, Japanese, Portuguese, Spanish, Italian, and French.
Later on in today’s program, we’ll talk about the phrasal verb “figure out.”
What will Brexit look like?
When the UK voted to leave the European Union, the voters did not specify what exactly they wanted an exit to look like. That was left to the government to figure out. And they have not yet figured it out. The UK government triggered the EU’s exit procedures and has committed to leaving the Union in March 2019. They have had two years to prepare, but the deadline is uncomfortably close and the two sides have not agreed on the major outlines of a deal .
Here’s what they have to figure out. The European Union is a close alliance of governments that have decided to open trade in goods and services to each other , cut down on customs and border inspections , and regulate markets in harmony so that trade and migration can be done seamlessly across borders . This is all done via a series of treaties and agreements , which Britain is a part of.
So over the last number of decades , Britain’s economy has gradually gotten more and more integrated with Europe. In the south of England, for example, goods flow back and forth between France without needing to be inspected —in many ways, the national border barely matters . That helps in manufacturing and also in food. Britain gets a lot of its food from the EU. People hop on a train in Britain and hop off in Paris or Brussels without having to pass through immigration or customs .
When Britain leaves, all those special privileges go away . That is officially scheduled for March 29, 2019. The UK would become like any other country in the world that has no agreement with the EU—basically, the least possible integration . Britain would no longer get favorable treatment in the EU market and would have to pay tariffs and duties on its imports , including on agriculture —so prices will rise immediately . The borders would have to be reinforced with immigration and checks on goods coming into Europe.
This is the so-called “no-deal” alternative , where Britain just wakes up one morning in March without any type of special trading agreement with its massive neighbor . The business and political communities are very worried about this because it will significantly disrupt all trade between the UK and the EU. It would be a mess.
But there are other alternatives, which are generally grouped together as “hard Brexit” and “soft Brexit.” Brexit is the word invented to describe Britain leaving the EU; it’s a mixture of the word Britain and exit. Under a hard Brexit, Britain would leave most of the EU’s institutions . It wouldn’t have to follow all of its rules , wouldn’t have to accept immigration from other European countries, but there would still be some privileged status when it comes to trade, so as to minimize the impact on the economy .
The problem with this so-called “hard Brexit” is that the EU doesn’t want to let Britain get free access to the market without having to accept any of the rules and make any of the payments to the EU budget. The way they see it , this type of deal would give Britain access to the benefits of being in the EU without having to shoulder the responsibilities . And the EU isn’t exactly in the mood to be doing favors to a member that just voted to leave.
So then there’s the possibility of a “soft Brexit,” where Britain does retain a lot of the rules and regulations that come from the EU in exchange for some more of the benefits. The trouble with a soft Brexit is that it’s not much of an exit from the EU at all. The people voted to leave—they voted to leave because they didn’t want to have to accept the rules and regulations, including on immigration, from Europe. So a so-called “soft Brexit” would not be popular in Britain itself.
The British government and the EU have had two years to negotiate the framework of a deal to leave. It is almost an impossible task and it seems like they are not any closer to finding an answer that will be acceptable to the EU, Britain’s government, and the British people. For a long time, it looked like the “hard Brexit” was where the UK government was going to go. Then it seemed like maybe a soft Brexit was more likely . But now it looks increasingly more likely that there may not be a deal, with many observers saying there’s a 50 percent chance they’ll actually leave without any type of deal . They would essentially become just like any other country to their biggest neighbor and the political union they have been a part of since 1973.
There is also the possibility of another outcome . The British people voted on June 23, 2016 to leave the European Union. They now have had two years to observe the negotiations on how to leave. There is the possibility that the government will call another referendum —essentially, let the people have one last say . Let the UK government negotiate its best deal with the EU and then let the people decide if they really want to do this, or if they want to stay in the EU after all . But that would have to be done quickly—next March 29 is seven months away.
What a complete mess that is. Two years in , and now they have just seven months and they don’t have a deal done. They don’t know if they are going to call another referendum. Wow.
I’d like to say hello to a couple of listeners today. First of all, Daniel from Mexico, works for an American company based in Philadelphia and everyone speaks English at work. He’ll be going to Philly soon, so I told him to make sure to try the famous cheese steak sandwiches from Pat’s and Geno’s. They’re across the street from each other, and they both have the same famous Philly steak sandwiches, but they taste a little different . One is greasier than the other. My advice is to get one from each and tell me which one you like better. Just remember not to eat breakfast or lunch the day you go because they’re big!
Also big hello and thank you to Vinicius, Priscilla, and Adália, all of whom wrote from Brazil this week. Thanks for listening to all of your and for being part of the Plain English audience.
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