China’s census shows population grew at its slowest rate since the 1960s

In the last ten years, the world’s biggest country added the equivalent of another France to its population. So why is everyone talking about population declines in China?

Lesson summary

Here we go again for another Plain English lesson, this time number 368. I’m Jeff; JR is the producer; and you can find the full lesson online at PlainEnglish.com/368.

On today’s lesson, we’ll talk about the population of the world’s biggest country, China. The Chinese government released the results of its decennial census this month, and we’ll take a look at the details. Later in the lesson, you’ll learn how to use the phrasal verb “make up” when talking about statistics and percentages. And we have a quote of the week about demographics. Let’s jump in now.

China’s census: more people, better living conditions

The world’s most populous country got bigger over the last decade. China now has 1.41 billion people, an increase of about 72 million people since its last census. In just ten years, China added the equivalent of France to its population—and it did so with very little immigration.

But this might be the last time a Chinese census tells this story. That’s because the population grew at its slowest rate since the 1960s. Even government statisticians say that the population is likely to peak before the next census, meaning that by 2031 the population will probably be shrinking every year, rather than growing. And India, with 1.37 billion people today, may soon be the world’s biggest country by population.

Like many countries, China conducts a census once every ten years. This is the seventh census it has performed. The highly-anticipated results were expected in the middle of April, but were delayed a few weeks.

Here are the headlines: China has 1,411,780,000 people. Compared with a decade ago, the total population increased by 5.38 percent, or 0.53 percent per year on average. The Han ethnic group makes up 91 percent of the population.

The data show there has been a lot of internal migration in China over the last ten years, too. An area in the northeast is called, in English, China’s “Rust Belt” because of its aging factories and declining industry. That area saw its population fall by over one percent, while the booming cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guanzhou saw their populations rise.

The trend toward urbanization is continuing, as well: now over 64 percent of the population lives in urban areas, up from about 50 percent a decade ago. That means that 230 million people moved from rural areas to urban areas. When you see cranes dotting the skylines of Chinese cities, or hear reports of new airports and train lines, it’s not because there are a lot more people in China; it’s in response to the massive internal migration from the countryside to the cities, and to rising living standards.

Speaking of rising living standards, the percentage of the population with a university degree increased from about 9 percent ten years ago to a little over 15 percent this year. The illiteracy rate fell from 4 percent to about 2.7 percent, and the number of years of schooling for people aged 15 and up increased from about 9 years to about 9.9 years.

So those are the headlines. But why are people pessimistic? For one, the population grew at its slowest rate since the 1960s. But its growth of 0.53 percent per year is only a little slower than the growth rate of the US, for example. And its fertility rate, at 1.3 children per woman, is higher than Spain and about the same as Japan. Many of the trends China faces—a slow-growing, ageing population, longer life expectancies, smaller family sizes—these are common across the rich world.

The problem for China is that they are facing rich-world demographic problems before getting rich. The number of people of working age in China declined by 6.7 percent; that’s defined as people between 15 and 59 years old. The country added 80 million new people over the age of sixty; if China added the equivalent of France to its total population, it added the equivalent of Germany to the ranks of people over 60.

The other area of concern for China is the lingering effects of its fertility management. Decades of controlling population growth may mean that population declines come quickly and fiercely. For decades, China famously had a one-child policy that limited the growth of its population. During times of scarcity, that may have made some sense. Today, though, as China has grown to be an economic power, a slow-growing population is a brake on its economic growth.

The one-child rule was dropped in 2015. Though couples are now allowed to have two children, many still choose to have only one child. Parents worry about the high cost of raising children, so they limit the size of their families; there is still some stigma to having a second child. Families with three children are very rare.

There is another potential lingering consequence of the one-child policy, and that is the preference for sons. Without any type of intervention, across cultures and time, about 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. But in the 1980s, ultrasound technology allowed parents to determine the sex of their children before they were born. This gave rise to the practice of sex-selective abortions across Asia. In some parts of China, up to 125 or even 130 boys were born for every 100 girls. The 2011 census showed that, nationwide, 118 boys were born for every 100 girls. That imbalance has come down in this census, which is a good thing: the ratio is now 111 to 100.

But demographics move slowly: the sex-ratio imbalance at birth has long-lasting consequences. Children born in the 1990s and early 2000s, when the sex ratio was at its worst, are now the ones at or approaching child-bearing age. If the sex ratio of people in their 20s is skewed, then there are fewer opportunities to make a male-female pairing. With fewer male-female couples, there’s less opportunity for natural population growth.

There are signs that the government is planning to loosen restrictions on fertility further. Its latest five-year plan promised a more “inclusive” fertility policy, which may mean greater access to in vitro fertilization for unmarried women or gay couples. It may also mean fewer, or no, restrictions on family size. The official census press release highlighted the improvement to the sex ratio at birth, signaling that it’s a priority for the government.

No new policy announcements accompanied the census release and all government statements came from statisticians, not senior political officials. The top government statistician said that “China’s advantage as a super-large domestic market will exist for a long time.”

A huge effort

The census amazes me. The simple act of trying to count every person in a country—even a medium-sized, developed country—is amazing. Now try to count them across the huge cities and sprawling countryside in a country as big as China. And then tallying it all up and analyzing the numbers—it’s quite an effort.