Cuba will be led by someone other than a Castro for the first time since 1959
This is Plain English, the podcast that goes at the right speed for English learners. Today is Monday, April 30, and this is episode number 42, which means you can find the full transcript of the program online at PlainEnglish.com/42. On today’s program, we’ll talk about the generational change in Cuba, as Raúl Castro, brother of revolutionary leader Fidel Castro, announced his retirement. Toward the end of the show, we’ll talk about the English phrase, to keep a low profile.
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Adiós to the generación historica in Cuba
Cuba’s government is going through its biggest change since Fidel Castro took power as president on January 1st, 1959. For the first time in almost six decades, someone not named Castro will be the country’s president.
Raúl Castro took over for his ailing brother in 2008 and has served two five-year terms. Now, he has decided to retire as president. The Communist Party of Cuba is the only political party allowed and it has nominated First Vice President Miguel Mario Diaz-Canel Bermudez as its candidate for president. It is almost guaranteed that he will be confirmed by the 604-member National Assembly.
Díaz-Canel has kept a low profile in public but has more than a 30-year record in government. He was the party secretary—kind of like governor—of Villa Clara province in 1994 and later served as minister of education. He has represented Cuba abroad in China, Russia, North Korea, and other countries, and later rose to be First Vice President.
As important as it is for a non-Castro to be in charge, it is also truly a generational change, since Díaz-Canel was born after Fidel Castro rose to power. Ever since 1959, the government has been controlled at the highest levels by the “generación histórica” – the old generation – of people who fought in the revolution. Díaz-Canel will be the first of a new generation to have day-to-day control of the government.
But that control will be limited in many ways. For one, Raúl Castro is not planning a peaceful retirement. The 87-year-old has said he will remain at the head of the Communist Party until his term expires in 2021. The Communist Party holds the real power in Cuba. He’ll also be in charge of the Cuban military. And his son, Alejandro Castro, is an official in the Ministry of the Interior, which controls the national police.
For another thing, the new president will also be kept in check by the National Assembly, which also holds a lot of power. Those 600-some delegates have been chosen by the old-guard Communist Party and would not be open to dramatic change.
If nothing else, though, the simple passage of time will reduce the old generation’s influence. Diaz-Canel and others in his generation may or may not be inclined to change the direction of the country. Although he presents himself as a modern figure, he said he believes in continuity and has shown no inclination to change direction in Cuba.
But that might not entirely be up to him since the Cuban economy is in such bad shape. So, while continuity may seem like the least-risky option, it also carries its own risks. For years, the Cuban state was kept alive by subsidies from the communist Soviet Union. Then, after that client state’s collapse, it was kept afloat by cheap oil imports and subsidies from Venezuela, which was ideologically sympathetic. Now, Venezuela is suffering its own economic collapse and has cut its oil production and subsidy to Cuba. So, Cuba has to do something to keep its economy alive.
On its own, the economy produces very little. Only about 10% of the workforce is permitted to work in private, individual businesses like restaurants, but the government is cutting back on permits to do even that. A complicated system of two exchange rates—one for individuals, another for government officials and government companies—keeps individuals poor. Many people depend on government ration-cards and state-run stores to stay alive. But without the help of Venezuela, the Cuban government may not be able to sustain the current, fragile system.
So, changes to Cuba’s political and economic system may be forced on the new president someday. In that case, one potential option would be the one taken in recent decades by China and Vietnam, which have partially opened their economies to foreign trade and independent businesses, even while maintaining one-party rule and restricting personal freedom of their citizens. That would at least bring more material wealth to the island, but it would carry some risks. In a more open economy, people would be more confident and may start to demand more political freedom as well as economic freedom. We’ll have to wait to see if that’s something Cuba’s new generation of leaders would welcome or resist.
I wanted to say hi today to some people who wrote to me over the last week or two. René from the Netherlands, Eder from Brazil, Sophia from Obregón, Mexico, Zhenghong from Sweden and Christopher from Brazil, who recently graduated with a degree in International Relations and is hoping to use English in his career.
Also, special thanks to Plinius, an English teacher from the Alagoas state in Brazil. He’s a veteran; he was turned on to the show by one of his students. I always figured that Plain English would be most useful for adults who were out of school, so I’m pleasantly surprised to hear that teachers and students are using it as a complement to the classroom. Thanks to Plinius and all his student for listening to Plain English.
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