Here are five questions to ponder as we head into 2021
Lesson summary
Hi there, welcome to the last Plain English lesson of 2020, number 325. I’m Jeff; JR is the producer; and you can find the full lesson online at PlainEnglish.com/325.
Coming up today: After the year we’ve just had, I would never venture to predict the future. So instead of predictions for 2021, I’ll just give you five questions to think about as we go into next year. The expression is “for good”—and I’m just warning you, it’s not about good or bad. And we have a song of the week.
Five questions for 2021
The first question on everyone’s mind: When will life get back to normal?
The first doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are being distributed as we speak. Russia and China have also developed and distributed vaccines, though they have not published the data as openly as the global pharmaceutical companies have. The World Health Organization has a program called COVAX, which will help distribute 2 billion doses and counting to the developing world in the first half of 2021.
At the same time, treatments for COVID are improving and the hospitalization rate and death rate are dropping. Getting COVID is not as bad as it once was. This should protect the most vulnerable people and allow the world to get back to some sense of normal. But it will take time.
If I had to make a prediction, I would say that the third quarter of 2021 is when the rhythm of pre-COVID life will resume—restaurants, offices, movies, music. But it might be until well into 2022 that we see packed dance floors, stadiums, trains, and buses in most places.
Second question: Who will lead Europe?
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will step down after the federal election in 2021. She will have been Germany’s leader for sixteen years, tied for a post-war record. As leader of continental Europe’s biggest economy, she has been the EU’s de-facto leader for much of that time. She has been a competent, centrist leader and steadily managed crises, including the financial crisis of 2009, Brexit, terrorism, coronavirus, and waves of migrants from the Middle East and Africa.
She does not have a clear successor, either for her official post as Chancellor of Germany or for her unofficial post as leader of the EU. Europe’s success often depends on the relationship between the French president and German chancellor, so this will be a development to watch in 2021.
Next up: Can anything stop big tech?
2020 was a bad year in many respects, but not if have investments in Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook and Microsoft: shares of the five biggest technology companies have risen by about 50 percent this year, and that includes the stock market crash in March.
The dominance of “big tech”—the five biggest companies—is starting to attract unwelcome attention. Both America and Europe are investigating Facebook and Google for anticompetitive practices. The US government and several American states are suing Facebook, alleging that its purchases of WhatsApp and Instagram should be reversed. One of the only things that unites politicians on both sides of America’s political divide is antipathy toward Facebook and big tech monopolies. Many people believe the tech companies have gotten too powerful, and that they harm consumers by being monopolies—in search and advertising.
The question is, will this have teeth? Will anything come of these lawsuits, or will big tech be able to continue as normal? Investors don’t seem to mind: the shares of big tech companies continue to rise. But I think this is a big question for 2021. How much will big tech have to change in response to questions about its size and influence?
The epic antitrust lawsuit against Microsoft in the 1990s dragged on for six years, so don’t expect this question to be resolved in 2021.
Another question: Will populism recede?
Populism refers to a general political stance where a leader claims to be standing up for “the people” against an “elite.” For example, when the UK voted to leave the EU, many voters said they wanted to take back control of their politics and policies, and not have to follow the dictates coming from Brussels.
The Brexit vote in 2016 set off a wave of populist elections around the world: Trump in America, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Orban in Hungary, AMLO in Mexico. But populism has receded a bit. Brexit happened, but Britain will still trade extensively with the EU and will follow many of the same rules as before. Trump, of course, became the first American president to lose re-election in 28 years.
The question is whether Trump’s defeat bodes ill for other populists in power, or whether the populist movement continues.
The last big question: How will transportation change?
It has never been safer to ride a train or a bus. But few people in the US and Europe are doing so: ridership on the New York Subway, the London Underground, metro systems in Berlin, Milan and hundreds of American and European cities has plummeted. Is that change for good, or will it bounce back?
First, the reasons for pessimism. With fewer people making a daily journey to work, the need for robust public transit may be lower. Americans in particular aren’t in love with public transit to begin with: they may decide they like car journeys better.
However, there is also reason for optimism: over the summer, when the economy in France and Austria started to open up briefly, ridership on the Paris and Vienna systems recovered to almost 70 percent of their pre-COVID levels. That suggests that, as fears of COVID subside, people will return to public transit.
Public transit agencies are starving for money. They had to invest more in cleaning protocols just as their income from fares was plummeting. Assuming they can recover, they need to win the trust of the public. A Japanese model showed that seats arranged diagonally can cut down on the spread of COVID. Other models show that public transit is not as dangerous as people think, as long as air flow can be maintained. Systems are experimenting with more efficient procedures, such as allowing people to board buses in the front and the back to avoid overcrowding. Other cities are experimenting with more dedicated bus lanes.
A return to normal?
It’s the last lesson of the year, so I wanted to take a moment to say thank you to the whole team that helps bring Plain English lessons to you each week. JR edits the audio and video, produces the web site, picks the song of the week, and helps moderate the Plain English Plus forums and live calls. Madeline from Oregon helps create the flash cards and some of the web site content. And we have our great translators, too. They are Paola from Brazil, Tao from China, Yoko from Japan, Katrin from Germany, Profe Coty from Argentina, Francesca from Italy, Melisa from Turkey, and Przemyslaw from Poland.
What they do every week is pretty incredible. Every Sunday, JR sends them two lesson transcripts and a list of about 200 words. They have to translate the 200 words and phrases correctly, based on the context of the lesson, and they have to do it by Wednesday, so that JR can get the translations up onto the web site in time. They do that every week, 52 weeks a year, no exceptions.
And the finished product is great. Because after they send the translations back, JR works his magic and the translations get up on the web site. So as you read the transcript, you’ll see those same words and phrases highlighted. Just hover your mouse over the highlights and you’ll see the translations from our human translators appear instantly over the word—all so you can continue enjoying and consuming the lesson without having to stop and look up definitions.
So, a special year-end thank you from me to JR, Madeline, Paola, Tao, Coty, Yoko, Katrin, Francesca, Melisa, and Przemyslaw.
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