Is this the moment Venezuela has been waiting for? The world is gradually throwing its support behind Juan Guaidó.
The leader of Veneuzela’s National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, declared himself the legitimate president, in the strongest challenge yet to the authority of strongman Nicolas Maduro. Maduro won what is widely considered to be a fraudulent election last year and recently began his second term. The US, Canada, and other large countries in the Americas have lent their support to Guaidó, and an alliance of European countries is pressuring Maduro to call a fair election. Will this be the end of Maduro’s disastrous presidency?
Welcome back to Plain English, I’m Jeff. Like always, JR is the producer. Today is episode 125, so you can follow along on the transcript at PlainEnglish.com/125. Our email addresses, if you want to get in touch with us, are [email protected] and [email protected]. And today I want to let you know about a new way to interact with us, and that is by WhatsApp. You know, several thousand of your fellow listeners are on the email list, and you guys all get the episode emails, with a summary of the topic and the links to the outside articles, and all that. But sometimes I just want to send out a quick note to some listeners and ask a question about a future topic, something more informal. I don’t want to send out notes to the email list, since that’s not what people sign up to the emails for. But I know a lot of you enjoy sending me notes and being in touch with us in a more intimate way.
So I looked into getting a WhatsApp number for the show, and I’m happy to announce it today. It is an American number, so you need the plus-one at the beginning. Here it is: +1 312 967 8757. I got to pick the number from a long list, so I got one starting with 312, which is Chicago, and I think the rest are easy to remember. They’re fun to say. 967 8757. So, here it is once more, +1 312 967 8757. Send me a WhatsApp, say hi, tell me your name, and I’ll write back, maybe not immediately, but I will write back. And when I have questions for the audience—if I want to get your feedback on something, or hear people’s opinions about an upcoming topic, I’ll send a note out to the WhatsApp list, and you can write me back. This is all an experiment, so we’ll see how it goes. +1 312 967 8757.
Parallel governments vie for legitimacy in Venezuela
Two parallel governments are vying for legitimacy in Venezuela. On one side, Nicolás Maduro. He has been the president since 2013 and won a second term last year in a so-called election, which was widely seen as a sham. On the other side, Juan Guaidó, a legislator who has recently emerged as the leader of the opposition. Guaidó declared himself the true president of Venezuela last week, saying the government’s sham election was not legitimate.
Venezuela has been in a deep economic crisis since 2014. The country suffers from shortages of basic goods and services, including food and medicine. Inflation is in the thousands of percentage points a year, effectively wiping out the value of any money that has been saved. People are in a desperate race to get money and spend it immediately on the food and supplies they need to survive. It’s not an exaggeration to say people are starving, unable to feed themselves or their families. Crime is rife, and a sense of desperation has set in among the population. Millions of desperate Venezuelans have fled the country, flooding neighbors like Brazil, Ecuador, and Colombia with refugees. The government has put restrictions on passports and visas, trapping many millions more who want to leave. Other countries, including the United States, have tried to send food and medicine to help people in Venezuela, but Maduro’s government has refused most outside support.
The country held an election last year, but it was widely considered to be a fraud: Maduro engineered his own victory by barring opposition politicians from running. He has also filled the Supreme Court with his supporters and invalidated Venezuela’s legislature, the National Assembly. The legislature has continued to meet since 2017, even though it has be stripped of power. Until today, the primary opposition figure had been Henrique Capriles, but for various reasons, opposition to Maduro has had a hard time getting any traction.
Enter the thirty-five year-old Guaidó. As the leader of the National Assembly, he is the primary opposition figure to Maduro. He has built up wide support among other members of the Assembly and recently decided to ratchet up the pressure on Maduro. He went before a cheering crowd of tens of thousands of people in Caracas and symbolically took the presidential oath of office, declaring himself the legitimate president. He told the crowd that if they do not continue to keep up the pressure on Maduro and fight for their freedom, then all of their sacrifice would not be worth it.
Guaidó proactively contacted the secretary of state of the United States, Mike Pompeo, and the vice president, Mike Pence, to ask for support. The US responded by pledging to send basic food and supplies as soon as they can find a way to get them into Venezuela. The US also took the extraordinary step of recognizing Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela—a move that has been surprising, considering Donald Trump’s typical desire to pull out of global alliances and focus on domestic policy. Other countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Canada, have joined the United States in recognizing Guaidó as the legitimate president. A statement by the United States said that the National Assembly is the only part of the Venezuelan government that was elected by the people, so it alone has legitimacy. Europe is preparing to recognize Guaidó unless Maduro calls an election; the prime minister of Spain gave a televised address saying Maduro has eight days to call an election. China, Russia, Turkey, Bolivia and Cuba are on the other side; they have publicly supported Maduro’s government. Mexico has not taken sides.
For the moment, Maduro holds the levers of power in Venezuela. As is the case in many authoritarian states, the military and government are closely intertwined. The military has been increasingly politicized, and the armed forces administer large portions of the economy, from energy to mining to the food supply. Maduro has ruthlessly made sure that only military members who support him and his government get promoted; anyone else is severely punished. So it’s no surprise that the Venezuelan military came out in support of Maduro’s government.
This was a setback for Guaidó’s efforts to build legitimacy inside his own country. However, there are signs that the military’s support for the Maduro regime might be weakening. Thousands of soldiers have either abandoned the armed forces or asked to be released from service. As one Venezuela expert said, the country will reach a tipping point when the military members themselves are suffering so much that even they can’t feed their families.
Juan Guaidó comes from the city of Vargas, in a working class neighborhood overlooking the Caribbean ocean. His father was a cabdriver and he has five siblings. Part of the reason why he has so much support is that, unlike many other prominent legislators, he did not come from a wealthy and highly-educated family. In fact, he comes from exactly the kind of place that used to support Maduro, and Hugo Chavez before him.
Guaidó told the crowd of supporters that he is just like the millions of Venezuelans who knows what it’s like to be hungry and to be desperate and unable to provide medicine for his family.
I, for one, would be extremely happy if this were the end of Nicolas Maduro. I think it’s too early to say that, but I was happy to see the European countries putting the pressure on Maduro. The situation there has been a disgrace for too long—but without an opposition leader, the rest of the world didn’t have anyone to support down there.
If you are interested in hearing more about this topic, we did an episode about the millions of refugees who have fled Venezuela and have gone to other countries like Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. That was episode 63, which you can find at PlainEnglish.com/63.
Quick hellos to some listeners—real quick since today’s episode is already super-long! Patrick from Belgium has been opening up a spare room in his home to guests on AirBnb, and he has hosted some travelers from the UK and the United States—and is using Plain English to practice and connect with his guests. If you find yourself in Flanders, make sure to look up Patrick on AirBnb. Finally today, big hello to Laura from Brazil, who is studying for the TOEFL and planning to study in Canada someday. I hope you liked last Monday’s episode, Laura!
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